Strategy and War in 21st century : Indo-pak updates

San tzu's Art of war is old and ancient and the book informs and structures conversation about war and strategy right upto the contemporary moment.

Strategic thought and thinking in India as well is ancient. Historical period and authorship issues beset Arthashastra, Mandala theory though shines forth. The circles that surround Vijigeshu works as a bedrock for most of the conventional modern International relations theory.

Modern Indian strategic thought, doctrines and capabilities are modeled on western statecraft. IF there is any distinctive aspect it lies in how strategic priorities are factored. Among experts and professionals military first, political second and economic a distant third encapsulates Indian strategic thought. In reality the political goals are prioritized over the military.

War as a theater was inaugurated in the early 1990' in the unipolar world led by USA. The disintegration of the USSR and the collapse of the Berlin wall precipitated and opened a space where the USA swiftly moved and made most of it. Iran- Iraq war was a decade old, US  through synergising its naval and air power demonstrated a new order through domination through and by the sky. Before that,  land based Army used to be the yardstick to define, operationalise and achieve victory and defeat. After the show in Iraq, gradually Air power and naval presence and technological mobilisation became the central instrument of war. As this century begun the US, again, responding to an attack on its land brought war and terrorism in a close integrated circuit.

This mode expanded the horizons of war beyond geographic location and contiguity. Ukraine-Russia, India-Pakistan and spillover effects of Israel's attack on Gaza follow the track of geographical location.

In the span of 75 years India and Pakistan have fought 3 wars, and the Kargil war(1999) was officially declared a war after it was over. The military of India and Pakistan engaged each other over the last weekend and American President responded to this incident on board a plane to middle east. He is visiting Saudi Arabia and Qatar, countries who do not have the best terms with each other and he is not going to land in Israel. He was escorted by warplanes of US origin en route to Saudi Arabia, UAE and Qatar. Allow me to rehearse a fact : global arms industry is close to 1 trillion and US is no. 1 exporter of arms. Screenshot attached for context.

 

 

Israel recorded a swift victory over Hezbollah through superior air power and continues to pound Gaza for one and half years on a daily basis. Some of the best arms of US are deployed in the region and were a significant factor in Israel's military operations. The victory over Hezbollah was swift and included decapitation and crushing blow to its armed mobilisation. However, months of planning, tracking and intelligence gathering preceded it.

The strategic theory suggests that Pakistan prefers and is geared towards a short duration war. Facing an adversary which is large in size, tactical and asymmetric advantages accrues in a short war the theory contends. It is early and available information is paltry and mostly about managing perceptions and mobilising the public. Question is simple,  is this theory holding? Early 7th morning, Pakistan initially claimed 2 aircraft were downed, it was raised to 5 within hours. The name, brand and build of the arms brought France and China into the picture while India and Pakistan were the countries who were actually using 'their' war machinery.

India received blows, which many experts dubbed as avoidable but we saw very limited use of Air Force in Kargil war. Pakistan has been also credited with very effective launching of drones in this round of conflict. Was it unexpected? Russia, Israel, Ukraine and Iran also do not have a water tight defence against rockets and drones. Drones are being presented as a game-changer for wars and conflict for at least 5 years. Drones are touted as better than UAV's which are expansive. The engagement of air force by India and Pakistan adds more validity to salience of drones in wars and conflicts of this century? And yes violence, conflict and their extreme form war is not receding or declining from the world. When the military of India and Pakistan were engaged and American President was touring middle-east, Russia hosted China, as it celebrated victory day celebrations on 9h may.

After the 7th may when Indian Air force attacked what they term as high-value assets and targets, the count of 5 aircraft downed remained unchanged in Pakistan's version. They learnt something and redeployed quickly or the enemies defences were weakened at the expense of 5 aircraft? After 7th may their airfields were raided in POK and Pakistan and drones offer no protection to such attacks. Pathankot, Udhampur and some other military bases of India were also hit. In a short war, if your run-ways, hangers and command centers get compromised. or when a  hit affects operations for a day, practically the war is over.

The India-Pakistan conflict is uniquely defined by three deeply intertwined and intractable issues: partition, Kashmir, and nuclear weapons (PKN). The desire followed by the articulation of a demand and attached with an urgency led to partition and creation of Pakistan. Once Pakistan was created, it turned Kashmir as an unresolved, pending issue. Given the first opportunity Pakistan went nuclear. It is a brief like acronyms of Pakistan, as a PKN factor and no more. Recent events strongly suggest that state-sponsored terrorism is emerging as a fourth, equally dangerous dimension.

Nuclear weapons are possessive. Nations want to possess them; Nukes in turn possess them. Deterrence is supposed to be an operating procedure, however as deterrent nuclear weapons bring the unknown and unthinkable as possible scenarios. Nukes often constrain and inhibit more and enable less. In terms of breaching a threshold this engagement between India and Pakistan registered a new element/aspect. Nations with nuclear arms do not engage directly with each other's military and air force. Why should it become normal? Though, immediately after acquiring nukes India and Pakistan got embroiled in Kargil. Whatever the motives, factors or reasons that informed de-escalation, it should be welcomed.

This round of conflict between India and Pakistan is connected to state sponsored terrorism and military solutions to long standing disputes. issues and conflicts within and among nations. Like runaways and airfields, terror infrastructure can be rebuilt and some more quickly than others. For the military establishment of India striking the headquarters of HM, JeM and LeT also had immense symbolic value. The glaring intelligence failure of Pahelgam and other terror attacks cannot be hidden, however, striking 9( 6 by Pakistani accounts) terror based premises and personnel points towards a different direction.

Note: A new updated, modern dimension of Mandala theory is overdue. It would factor how  modern doctrines of escalation and deterrence impose a new set of circles that enables and inhibits a vijigeshu.

We need to think. Before elation over reported, faraway, 'unverifiable' victories consume us. Also beyond cycles of fear and anxieties that wars and conflicts induce.