Meltdown

The transition from ceasefire to a sustainable exit plan in the Gulf region requires a phased approach that addresses war related strategic blockades, immediate humanitarian needs, restoring economic and security frameworks, and fosters inclusive diplomacy. This roadmap outlines key steps to move beyond conflict toward initialising stalled maritime traffic, building frameworks for negotiation, diplomacy and trust, utilisation of available resources, reconstruction of capacity and peace. Ceasefires are fragile and delicate, they always are. To support and sustain this ceasefire -- violations must be minimised.  The primary responsibility for minimizing ceasefire violations lies with those who have agreed to the ceasefire. This conflict has breached the distinction between the direct and indirect parties, therefore, it is of paramount importance that other stakeholders are included, not excluded. The spillover of this conflict is global, not regional so hopefully more parties join th...

During this week the dynamics of Iran conflict as an operation not WAR unfolded. Military strategy, economic resources, regional/global implications, social and cultural dynamics, historical context, human and environmental costs, public opinion are factors while analysing war. Assuming capabilities remain unchanged during wars is not advisable, it is a variable as war unfolds, re-calibration is critical. Keep in mind, there is no end game, except shaking up the existing order from its foundations, as a most likely outcome. As this war despite its ramifications is an attempt to push an existing conflict( happened last year) to a systemic shake up. It is a big factor. Big factor two : The shelf life of postures and deterrence available to regional powers has eroded and escalation by great power is the name of the game. The 'super' powers have the strategic wherewithal to breach the threshold of deterrence of lesser powers and have shown increasing inclination to do so. Location...