Iran Conflict : Endgame or a list of scenarios

During this week the dynamics of Iran conflict as an operation not WAR unfolded.

Military strategy, economic resources, regional/global implications, social and cultural dynamics, historical context, human and environmental costs, public opinion are factors. Assuming capabilities remain unchanged during wars is not advisable, it is a variable as war unfolds, re-calibration is critical.

Keep in mind, there is no end game except shaking up the existing order from its foundations, as a possible most likely outcome. As this war despite its ramifications is an attempt to push a regular existing conflict( happened last year) zone for systemic shake up. It is a big factor.

Big factor two : The shelf life of postures and deterrence available to regional powers has eroded and escalation by great power is the name of the game. The 'super' powers have the strategic wherewithal to breach the threshold of deterrence of lesser powers and have shown increasing inclination to do so.

Location of this conlict is of utmost importance. While the phrase 'data is the new oil' encapsulates the axis of emerging economy, bear in mind that GULF states harbour, host, supply and ensure flow of both oil and data. Cloud infra and hyperscale data centeres of Microsoft, Amazon, Huawei, Ali baba coexist in west asia.

Thinking scenario with a strategy is a time tasted touchstone in diplomatic and war circles. This approach inform, help and guide decision making in theaters other than wars.

Now some scenarios :

1, Arab nations ( attacked by Iran) and Abraham accord members join the armed conflict, they are already involved. 

2 Outright and complete victory in Trump defined terms.

3 Israel has achieved its decapitation and degradation of target, and land incursion Lebanon, so gradually withdraws to its retaliatory strikes. The Israel is geared and has benefited from aggression and seeks to normalise its terms of engagement. Israel has upset the calculations of its allies and adversaries and in is position to dictate terms to its allies.

4 Iran's resistance persist and is able to shift this operation into a war of attrition and takes the diplomatic route. 

5. Russia, China or India join the conflict as a ssn torpedo hits an unarmed vessel in the straits of Hormuz or we are told so. Escalation through cyberattacks also brings this scenario possible.

6. Glitch and sabotage is inbuilt in this design of war. Saddam was found years after the war and boots on the ground, this war designed on that model seeks a capture, the person( head) it seeks to capture alive is dead and endless war persists. It also factors the misses and hits, the false flags and 'friendly fire', mishits that has occurred. The element of irrational is part of war and this scenario is an illustration. This situation/scenario is possible and moreover wars are often initiated for reasons that are unreasonable and beyond comprehension. The preference of barely legal over the approach of mature statesman can be sensed, it was palpable before and visible during this war. 

 7. Hegseth says more basing when GCC in a statement said this is not our war, Saudi says no attacks from our soil(the ground). Unlikely scenario: Arab neighbors prolong their inaction( avaialable options contain their interests) and Iran inflicts significant damage to US bases and Arab league and GCC pushes for less and no bases on US!

The post will benefit when missing scenarios are identified or highlighted by readers. Or when a most likely, beneficial and possible outcome within the locked and open dynamics of war is thought through by participants, affected parties, stranded lives, bystander visions and spectators!

Why immediate de-escalation and ceasefire is not a NET gain?

 P. S. : Decapitation was reinvented  by NSA thinktanks while integrating commands and N weapons : how the authorisation and delegation would work in war like and extreme scenarios. There was little discussion about how it would impact regimes, political legitimacy, regional security, internal stability and international order. The unfolding events are lessons.

 # AI has spread and permeated many domains, and suggests two additional scenarios: Hail Mary( a breakaway group with N weapons and Balkanisation of Iran. Actually offshoots of one scenario. Hail Mary( Muslims with Christian Prayers) very very unlikely, as it assumes existence of a N weapon that is already ready; with a platform and a vehicle to launch or deliver, all functional and intact. The Balkan state scenario is text book example of risky and very dangerous scenario. Or a film's climax : a terror group with a N weapon a grave risk to all. Iran( Breakup and breakaway) is large and spillover will be unmanageable and an immediate and long term threat to its neighbours. There is an attempt to instill instability and plant disorder in the region and recent and historical examples galore in West Asia( middle east) and elsewhere. Chose not to ignore but engage with AI suggestions.

A clear image of the 'system' that is in place and multi-stakes of this model that factors US- China dimension and its unique location is available here as a link.