Weather Prediction and Climate Change

Irrespective of where one is located, the bubble of normalcy does not last hours. We had a difficult weekend with war clouds looming over south Asia. Belying predictions, forecasts and expectations wars has reared their head in many parts of the globe, not only in South Asia. Sleep, calm and normalcy has been severely affected and many have been forced to look up in at the sky. 'Look at the heavens, and see; and behold the clouds, which are higher than you' and wonder and ponder about what lies ahead? I have been waking up early in the morning for a month or so to see Venus, Mercury and Mars. They are visible with the naked, unaided eye for a month or so in this part of the world.

Hazy sky, no stars, Venus visible
  

Skies over large cities in north India are hazy and thick with pollutants and on clear nights one can see only a handful of stars. Human Light objects which dot the cities  lead to a scattering effect hindering human vision towards the sky. Venus, the morning and evening star is visible. Wonder why stars can't be seen and Venus is visible? Stars are far and planets near? Gemini informs that “Venus is closer to both the Sun and Earth, reflecting a significant amount of sunlight. Stars, even bright ones, are much farther away and appear fainter.”


Human induced change affects cloud and blind sensors human and other beings were endowed with. Our ancestors and human beings of today do not live in the same world anymore.


Yesterday, the weather forecast announced severe heat all through the day and night. It was supposed to continue for a week. And before the weather updates changed through the fast and quick internet, clouds gathered and we had rains in the afternoon. Amazon, equatorial weather around the tropic(line) of cancer in the middle of summer season in south Asia! And a picture before another line is added.

 


Yes, a rainbow. It lasted for a couple of minutes.

Stars, planets and rainbows in the sky are visible. Planets and stars have been adding a layer of permanence, endurance and immortality to human lives for ages, as transience and ever changing life unfolds. And in between the luck of witnessing a fleeting and beautiful rainbow. Droplets from rains, rays from the sun and we have magic.

Let me present a screenshot to move this post in the desired direction. Screenshot shows news for the day:
 

Google's discover page
 
The weather forecasts – rain, thunderstorms and heatwaves– and they do occur, across seasons and regions. Now, within a day or over a week and in one place we see them occurring. The 9th May screenshot is of this kind. A compression of seasons with extremities within a season and volatility has become the order of most days and nights.
 
The news, weather forecast and weather as news is forward looking. Took screenshots as users do not have access to data as hours pass, weeks advance and months are archived.
 
Weather forecast for today and week :
 

 
Today’s/week's forecast was extreme heat. A thunderstorm and rain hit us again, before evening.

The autocorrect is switched off and yet the word prediction was changed to forecasts while writing this piece. Technically the correction is right. One of the issues I would like to highlight is the limitations of technical info in factoring, facing and possibly altering a desirable change. A lot of autocorrects and forecasts like today's is not going to help us.

There are radars and sensors on the ground and many of them have been exported to space via satellites. Yet, the forecasts falter. What we see as weather predictions for the day and week via the internet is legacy data of places, regions collected over years. The available set for 17th May forecasts on the basis of data of 17th may week based on recorded temperature of 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021 and so forth, They will remain useful for measuring deviations as climate changes but increasingly unhelpful to forecast weather for coming years.

Once climate change becomes visible and available for day to day experience our task is more daunting than most of us assume. As the climate system undergoes significant shifts and extremes become more frequent and unpredictable. The complex dynamic is interconnected and climate change, environmental degradation, and geopolitical instability intersect.
 
Sudden drop in temperature and cleaning of the environment through rains brings measurable benefits to our world and its arrangements. A drop in temperature would see reduction in uses of cooling systems(air-conditioners) which consume a lot of electricity. Some measures factor the benefits of breathing clean air, it is a good beyond these measurements. We hear about cloud seeding but these days no one flags acid rains. A sudden, unexpected rain is good for the cities but could be catastrophic for farmers and production of grains.

The environment, climate and ecosystems are multifaceted and multidimensional and numerous nodes and channels feed them to maintain their functions and ensure their viability. This system exists now in a fundamentally altered state. And in such a state the contingent holds more significance?

Contingency, invoking Rorty, works as an element within and beyond the large arrangements that encompass human lives. The abrupt, the contingent can be as beautiful as a rainbow or lead tragically to war.
 
As the specter of war looms over us and the system intends to reduce ordinary mortals as spectators who relish/realise a victory through the spectacle of war; can we think afresh and reorient our priorities? We are armed and geared towards war not towards climate and the crisis it spawns. Al-arm.

WE defend 'against' climate change or plan to adapt and adjust with it?
 
A clear picture of Morning Venus 25th April.


AI image sourced from wordclouds.com

 
Whether the skyward gaze reveals or its a velvet cloak a blanket?


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