Moments and Movements within the 2024 Elections

64 countries and 49% of people in the world are going to vote this year. The oldest, most powerful and the biggest democracy is among these 64 countries.This year was presented as not an election year, but as the year of elections. This expectation was alongside the unfolding of events in Gaza and Palestine. At the end of this year will we continue to associate democracy with regular elections and what it ensures or look more at the state of relations within and among states and societies?

It is May, and at the middle of Indian elections( with 283 seats out of 543 already voted) instead of stabilized expectations worries, fears and uncertainty have taken center-stage. Most people including the ruling party in India are unsure, as of today, what the outcome of elections would be? The dominant and successful electoral  campaign of  MODI vs who( you cannot name your leader, you have no leader!) is muted. In the last two elections a single party won a mandate on its own, after 40 years, will it remain an aberration? Or this election is not about one party but alliances, NDA vs INDIA?

To the extent these are reasonable question, today, they highlight the recent changes in perceptions and expectations. At the beginning of year, a third term for BJP, Modi to be more precise, looked imminent and its outcome predictable to most. The stage was set and scheduled 'hat'trick campaign rolled up and continues. The images and impressions of north Indian cities and towns in the last week of January eclipsed and erased the forthcoming elections from public perception? Many commentators felt that the BJP's political project of Hindu Rastra has finally arrived.

One finds analytical confusion among commentators related to the legitimate place and role of a majority in democracy and what many label as autocracy. The analytical confusion is due to insufficient distinction and conflation of three strands; rise of majoritarianism, visible tendencies of authoritarianism and fear that Indian democracy is mobilising toward dictatorship. In part this has to do with the muddled picture that commentators face. Distrust in institutions, economic growth with rapidly rising inequalities and presence of elemental fear adds more layers and complexity to the picture.

Within this milieu how the average voter would factor their available options and what would they decide. The way Tamilnadu or Odisha votes contrasted with how Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra votes and erstwhile J & K doesn't vote↑ gives us very different impressions of what the majority thinks and chooses in the 'national', general elections.

Periods of economic rise or prolonged stagnation usually lead to consolidation of conservative right and concentration of power. India is swaying with the swirls of these currents and elections alone may be inadequate to respond to the challenges that democracy faces. Populism, conjoining of economic and conservative right has weakened democracy globally.

The ruling party's(BJP) single-minded focus to win, with little regard for the integrity and fairness of the electoral process is a matter of concern and should be addressed before more damage is done. Addressing these concerns does not require a lot of resources or big changes. BJP and Modi owe most of their power, influence and prestige to the legitimacy, fairness and integrity of the Indian electoral process.

The stifling of expression and debate and mobilising the existing avenues/media as nodes for campaign means that the articulate and argumentative Indian is more cautious, less talkative and unsure, whether the available avenues are receptive of their concerns. When the legitimate and permissible questions are kept out from discussion, they take the form of fear. Will the proverbial, average voter, then, speak more through 'secret' ballots during this election? Or the onslaught of coordinated, backroom and well funded electoral campaigns and influencers will triumph and overwhelm the voter?

Last year, responding to the 'on schedule' hattrick campaign, Yogender Yadav's electoral board contending that opposition is still in the game brought analysis and interest back to elections. Though the suspicion that the match is fixed and outcome predictable lingers. Two events that followed Yadav's presentation of the electoral board are noteworthy. First, Nitish Kumar's JD(U) switching sides and second Mamta Banerjee's TMC finally not joining INDIA. These two events were advantageous BJP(NDA) and adversarial to the INDIA alliance.

The electoral bonds verdict coming afterwards these two events in February offset the edge that BJP had over all other parties. The electoral bonds case will definitely affect future elections more. So it is even-stevens with a slight edge for the ruling party in this election and more open competition among parties in future?

How and where do we locate an edge and for whom? What would be good for the electorate?

The constitution of the electorate changes overtime. The young are in majority: an estimate suggests that 600 million in India are between 18 to 35 years old. From the last twenty years, this shift in the demographic side is rehearsed through new forms of data. Earlier I was part of changing dynamics, now I fall on the other side. During this election young voters and candidates hold the key. Are their concerns and expectations reflected in campaigns?

BJP got its 31+majority without much of an electoral victory in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. The national campaign Modi vs rest and BJP vs opposition parties appeals to no ground reality and often is unrelated to voters' choice of candidate in south India. Indian voters see through catchy and national, electoral campaigns and leaders. How and why the electoral board is set as parties form alliances are factors voters are familiar with and usually vote with discrimination. They evaluate the performance of governments and distinguish and choose carefully between assembly and national elections. As 2019 and state assembly elections have shown, Indian electorate neither has unreasonable expectations from governments nor averse to reelecting a govt.

Quick analysis and sticking out one's head is always risky. Though, no one laughed at those who analysed and related the effect of lower turn on electoral outcome; and ECI revised lower voter turnout data. Most people look serious about this election.

India's third democratic surge is not receding, the bedrock and architecture of passive and silent revolution in India is intact, and one party salience system as a model for Indian party system is useful and relevant. Factoring and interpreting the opinions about emerging trends, I venture to say that for the magical majority, it will boil down to alliance not a party. And BJP's alliance formation lacked political acumen and diligence and it would hurt them further.

Reaching the majority mark will not be a result of a direct contest between BJP and Congress. The outcome of BJP vs INDIA alliance parties will play a bigger role in the formation and composition of 18th Lok Sabha. Parliamentary constituencies, for example, Bhadhoi, Uttar Pradesh, where the option for the voter literally does not include BJP or an India alliance partner may decide: who gets to form the government after this election. The falling short or reaching the majority might be a function of the number of such constituencies.

Indirect contest between the two alliances and where people find other alternatives and options as worthy of their vote, may weigh heavily on this general election. West Bengal, Odisha, Northeast India and the flux in the electorate map and among political actors in Maharashtra will have a decisive bearing on 2024 elections in India.

The importance of how the voters perceive, picture and decide among candidates and parties needs to be reiterated.

Notwithstanding the updates to the post and past its moments, it is the outcome and people's verdict that will decide whether it is a momentous election.

 

↑Low voter turn-out, two missing assembly elections, Anantnag,